Thrive's Joshua Kushner Criticizes Silicon Valley VCs' AI Euphoria

In Thrive Capital's first-ever investor letter, founder Joshua Kushner delivered some unexpected critiques of his West Coast venture capital peers, even as he acknowledged the immense potential of artificial intelligence. "It is difficult to overstate the magnitude of the opportunity," Kushner wrote about AI in the letter, which was leaked to Bloomberg. "It would also be a grave error in our minds to let excitement weaken our investment discipline. … Within Silicon Valley in particular, the industry can become fixated on hyperincremental technological turns rather than where the technology ultimately leads." While Thrive—a secretive New York-based firm—is betting heavily on AI, just like its Silicon Valley counterparts, Kushner argues that it is doing so differently. Thrive avoids the so-called 'spray-and-pray' investing approach, instead concentrating its bets. According to Bloomberg, roughly 90% of Thrive's capital is allocated to its top 15 investments in each fund. This strategy, Kushner contends, reflects a culture of independent thinking. "We are independent because markets move between fear and enthusiasm, and neither is a substitute for judgment," he wrote. His comments stand in stark contrast to one of Silicon Valley's foundational VC principles: the 'outlier' model, famously championed by Marc Andreessen. Under that approach, a firm makes numerous bets, expecting many—or even most—to fail. The few big successes are supposed to generate returns so large that they offset all losses and then some. This philosophy pushes VCs to constantly hunt for the next OpenAI or similar mega-winner. However, it can also lead to what we saw during the post-pandemic lean years, when firms cut support for startups not deemed to be on track for massive success. Kushner describes an alternative vision: "We believed an investment firm could be opportunistic across stage, sector, and geography, while remaining deeply concentrated in a small number of people and ideas." The goal, he says, is to "build Thrive to concentrate our time, capital, and energy on the people and ideas we believe in most." Kushner also pushed back against the Silicon Valley narrative that VCs exist to disrupt incumbents. "Unlike many of our peers, our conviction was not only that these industries would be disrupted from the outside in but also that many would be transformed from the inside out," he wrote, referring to AI's impact. Thrive has largely adhered to this thesis. Its deepening relationship with OpenAI is a prime example. The firm is a major investor in the AI lab. But in December 2025, the roles reversed when OpenAI took an ownership stake in Thrive Holdings, the VC firm's spinout. Thrive Holdings acquires companies and then collaborates with OpenAI to give them an AI makeover, with OpenAI dedicating employees to work directly with Thrive's portfolio companies. As AI investment euphoria continues to surge toward 2026, Kushner's letter serves as a reminder that even in the most exciting technological waves, disciplined, concentrated strategies may offer a more sustainable path than broad, speculative bets.

via TechCrunch