Whether AI is already replacing jobs remains a fiercely debated topic. As of 2026, fresh data challenges the narrative that engineering is the profession most vulnerable to automation.
Tech layoffs hit their highest single month in years back in May 2025, with AI cited as the primary driver, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Yet despite widespread adoption of AI-powered coding tools, engineering hiring tells a different story.
“The rationale given for lots of layoffs is consistently AI, and specifically they’ll say AI with respect to code; they’ll say one engineer could do the job of however many engineers in the past,” said Asher Bantock, head of research at venture firm SignalFire. “What we’re seeing on the ground is a little inconsistent with that.”
SignalFire’s latest State of Talent Report tracked careers across millions of employees and over 80 million companies. Rather than focusing on layoffs — which can be slow to reflect in public records — the firm analyzed hiring data as a more real-time indicator. Their conclusion: engineering was the most resilient job function in 2025.
Across large tech companies, total hiring fell 25% compared to 2019 levels. But engineering roles saw only an 11% decline. In fact, engineers made up 55% of all new hires at the 12 “Tech Majors” — Alphabet, Meta, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Netflix, NVIDIA, Tesla, Uber, Airbnb, Block, and Stripe — up from 46% in 2019.
The trend was even more pronounced at early-stage startups, which collectively hired 7% more engineers in 2025 than they did in 2019.
“If AI were truly substituting for engineering talent, engineering hiring would be the first to fall amid this contraction,” Bantock argued. Instead, engineering headcount grew faster than most other tech functions.
This resilience stands in contrast to dire warnings from some industry leaders. In 2025, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei predicted AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs and push unemployment as high as 20% within five years. Yet the company’s own head of economics, Peter McCrory, told TechCrunch in March 2026 that he had not observed significant AI-driven workforce effects.
“There’s at least no larger material difference in unemployment rates” between workers who use Claude for core tasks — such as technical writers, data entry clerks, and software engineers — and those in less AI-exposed roles requiring “physical interaction and dexterity with the real world,” McCrory said.
As 2026 unfolds, the data suggests that rather than eliminating engineering jobs, AI may be reshaping demands — shifting roles toward higher-value problem-solving and collaboration — while leaving overall hiring surprisingly robust.
via TechCrunch AI